Commodity Prices Can Zig Zag

Weekly Commentary for April 12, 2011

Lesson #1: Commodity prices can rise sharply.
Lesson #2: Commodity prices can fall sharply.

July 11 2008: Crude trades at $147
July 18 2008: Crude closes at $129
This was a quintuple-bottom break.  Bad.

Two WEEKS after reaching $147:
July 29 2008: Crude trades at $120
This was also a support line break. Important!

Then, just over a month later:
September 2, 2008: Crude trades at $106
September 16, 2008: Crude trades at $91
The price of crude was sliced by one-third in 60 days

Two months later:
October 16, 2008: Crude trades at $70
Crude gets sliced in half in roughly 90 days.

If you are relying on a blog post for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.

If you do not have an investment adviser, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000, or through our website.

Under no circumstances should the content discussed on this post be considered specific investment advice.

And it’s not just oil. Even gold, which (to some) never goes down, dropped from a shade over $1000 in March 2008 to six months later (October 2008) gold was bouncing around $700.

Commodities can zig and zag (quickly) because (unlike stocks) there is no dividend, which keeps some people invested.  Also unlike stocks, there will never be earnings reports which could drive prices up or down. There are also very few “fundamental” analysts talking about commodities.

Especially with commodities …when the charts change, we MUST change.

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About Thomas Mullooly

Thomas Mullooly is owner and founder of Mullooly Asset Management, Inc.

An investment industry veteran of over thirty years, Tom started his career in 1983 at EF Hutton. During his time as a retail stockbroker, Tom also became a manager. By listening closely to clients and his peers, Tom found first-hand how many individual investors – along with their brokers -- had no game plan for managing the risk in their investments. With that in mind, in 2002 Tom opened Mullooly Asset Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm.

As an investment advisor, and not a broker, Tom works strictly for his clients. With the help of point and figure charting, Tom builds a realistic game plan for clients. No pie-in-the-sky forecasts or predictions of the future. A simple game plan to manage what to do if something goes wrong, and what to do when things go right. All of Tom’s financial planning sessions with clients start with a conversation and a simple yellow pad.

Tom hails from Long Island and is a proud graduate of Chaminade High School. Tom achieved his BS at CW Post in 1983 (in three years), and received his MBA from CW Post in 1987.

Outside the office, Tom has served as President of North Wall Little League, and served on the New Jersey District 11 Little League board. Tom is a board member of Family Options, an Adoption agency in Monmouth County. Tom is a daily communicant at St. Rose Church in Belmar and also serves as Sacristan, Lector and Eucharistic Minister and serves on the St. Rose Finance Committee.