Mullooly Asset Management » Stock Market

Facebook IPO: Will This Be a Great Deal or a Bust?

Thomas Mullooly — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 22:59:31 +0000

Facebook IPO News February 2012

Last week, in February 2012, Facebook filed for their initial public offering of stock. In this podcast, we discuss some of the basics of all IPO’s (Initial Public Offerings) and some of the merits of Facebook which are known at this point in time (February 2012). We do not have all of the information disseminated yet from Facebook at this time.

Any offering of shares can be made by prospectus only.

However, every investment adviser is likely to get calls from clients and prospective clients about Facebook. Their offering will be historic in several ways. Like many famous initial public offerings, shares may be very hard to come by.

But keep this in mind — after the offering, Facebook will be one of the largest publicly traded internet and technology companies. Which means Facebook will probably be attractive to exchange traded funds and mutual funds which invest in technology and the internet.

We have to say “probably” in this blog post and podcast, because we have no guarantee anyone will buy their shares or even if the initial public offering gets completed. It’s also a bad idea to speculate about the future, period! But the media will have a field day with any news regarding a Facebook IPO.

Two other things:
1. This video is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned here.
2. None of the securities mentioned in this video represent past specific recommendations of Mullooly Asset Management.

If you are relying on a blog post for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.
If you do not have an investment adviser, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000, or through our website. Under no circumstances should the content discussed here to be considered specific investment advice.

If you would like to see a mutual fund, exchange traded fund or individual stock analyzed using point and figure technical analysis, please contact Mullooly Asset management at 732-223-9000. I would also add the following: Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions, or withdrawals may materially alter the performance of your portfolio. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for an investor’s portfolio.

AUSAX: Columbia Acorn USA Fund

Thomas Mullooly — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 14:59:22 +0000

Is the Columbia Acorn USA Fund (symbol AUSAX) available in your retirement plan at work? AUSAX may be available in your deferred compensation plan or your 401k plan. In the many retirement plans I have reviewed, the Columbia Acorn Fund is one of the more popular funds — meaning, it is often offered as one of the choices for growth funds in a 401(k) plan.

The Columbia Acorn USA fund is currently (January 2012) invested in technology, retailing and other small cap investments. This can be a volatile fund both UP and DOWN, but you will need to see the video below for more details.

In some deferred comp accounts and 401(k) plans, the Columbia Acorn fund (AUSAX) is sometimes the most recognizable growth fund in your plan. With that in mind, I have prepared an analysis of the point and figure chart for this fund.

If you are relying on a blog post for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.

Please note this is an ANALYSIS of AUSAX, the Columbia Acorn USA fund, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell this fund. In fact, none of the securities analyzed represent past specific recommendations of Mullooly Asset Management.

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

Additionally, all investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions, or withdrawals may materially alter the performance of your portfolio. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for an investor’s portfolio.

Feel free to pick up the phone and call us (or email) to get your questions answered about the Columbia Acorn fund (AUSAX), or your 401k retirement account at work, any investment your are considering. We can be reached at 732-223-9000.

Volatility in the Marketplace Podcast

Thomas Mullooly — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 21:30:23 +0000

Podcast January 9, 2012

Even though the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was essentially flat (up less than one percent) in 2011, we witnessed the most volatility in recent memory. However, the volatility might NOT be coming from the daily news that so many feel are driving the markets. In Bear markets (and we are in a secular bear market in 2012), there is (often) a tremendous increase in volatility. But the strange phenomenon about bear markets is they typically finish where they began. We also spend time in the podcast discussing why Mullooly Asset Management does not make market predictions and why predictions about the economy and predictions about the stock market are usually a waste of time.

We encourage our readers and listeners to our podcast to consult with their investment adviser before making a decision to buy or sell any investment.

And if you are relying on a podcast for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.

If you do not have an investment adviser in the New Jersey or New York area, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000 or through our website.

Under no circumstances should any of the content discussed on this podcast be considered investment advice.

The Mullooly Asset Management Podcast can be found below. The Podcast can also be found on iTunes. Go to the iTunes Store and simply search for “mullooly.” Under no circumstances should the information contained in this blog or podcast be considered investment advice.

Thank you for listening. We welcome your comments and questions.

Managing Money in 2012: What Investors Need

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 13:28:27 +0000

I have been helping individuals manage their money for over twenty five years.

Actually longer — if you count the days I spent with EF Hutton, before becoming a licensed stockbroker. I have seen everything, so I will not recount the glory days and the gory days here.
We all have our war stories.

Along the way, I learned how making investment decisions based on news can really kill your portfolio. I have employed point and figure analysis to help manage money for my clients since 1997. The beauty of these charts, if you have followed my work, is they cut through all the noise we hear (and read) on a daily basis. All you see on point and figure charts are columns of X’s going up, and columns of O’s going down. The patterns they form point us into the right choices.

No doubt, 2012 will give us some serious headlines. News that will make us want to vomit, and news that will make us scratch our heads.

And only then most folks TRY to figure out HOW this news will affect their investments. Yikes.

Over the weekend, I saw a very famous photo, courtesy of www.championsgallery.com.
It immediately struck me: this is what we ALL need to successfully navigate 2012.
Look at the photo, below:

Managing Money Needs Focus

I want you to look at something in this photo: even though Secretariat was THIRTY ONE LENGTHS in front of the competition…
Notice the blinders.
Notice the eyes.
Forward.

I’ll say it again: 2012 will bring some gut-wrenching news. The beauty of point and figure charting is these charts cut through all the noise we hear (and read) on a daily basis. Point and Figure keeps our blinders on, and keeps our eyes focused straight ahead. Not on some far-off dream like they preach at the big firms (“ya gotta be long term”). All you see on point and figure charts are columns of X’s going up, and columns of O’s going down. The patterns they form, point us toward the right choices.

Point and Figure charts have been pointing people in the right direction since they were created over one hundred years ago, in the 1880′s. These charts do NOT follow the news. They follow the ultimate indicator: prices. News often breaks well after people have placed their bets. In other words, charts will begin moving up (or down) well BEFORE the news is learned. By the time they are talking about it on TV, it is too late.

We remain focused on what is happening in the market, and what is happening with your investments in particular. We are keeping the blinders on, vowing NOT to be distracted.

Insurance Companies and the Enstar Group – ESGR

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 13:53:31 +0000

In this video, recorded November 18, 2011, we take a look at Enstar Group, ticker symbol ESGR.
And by way of comparison, also take a peek at other insurance companies in the sector.

All insurance companies are unique, so it is very hard to line up peers when trying to compare names. But it is pretty amazing how so many names in a sector can have similar looking charts.

Now, any time we are mentioning specific investments in a post or video, I think it is also important to mention the following:

I mean, that just makes sense, right?

The investments mentioned in this video (and all videos) were suggested by clients, who asked me to analyze the chart for a particular investment. If you would like us to analyze an investment for you, feel free to contact us.

Finally, you also need to know that none of the names mentioned in this video are (or have been) specific recommendations of Mullooly Asset Management.

My 401k is Very Diversified

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 13:35:22 +0000

Or is it?

So many times I’ll meet a new client and they will tell me, “Even though my retirement account at work is totally diversified, I still lost money. Why?”

Was it REALLY diversified?

In this video, I show you how there is so much over-lap among large cap mutual funds. It’s pretty sobering when I show clients how many of the same names appear over and over in MOST of their large cap funds. Some of the investments mentioned here include the Vanguard Institutional Index fund (VIIIX), the T Rowe Price Equity Income fund (PREIX), the Fidelity magellan fund (FMAGX), the Eaton Vance large Cap fund (EILVX).

Now, any time we are mentioning specific investments in a post or video, I think it is important to mention the following:
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

I mean, that just makes sense, right? Oh, and something else:

Finally, you also need to know that none of the names mentioned in this video are (or have been) specific recommendations of Mullooly Asset Management. The investments mentioned in this video (and all videos) were suggested by clients, who asked me to analyze the chart for a particular investment. if you would like us to analyze an investment for you, feel free to contact us.

Positive Trend Can Be Your Friend

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 16:53:41 +0000

After a good run in late October, the last day of October AND now the first day of November are off to a thud. What’s happening?

There is a significant difference between the market action in late July – early August and now. The drop in August was enough to break support lines. But at the present time, we are operating in a positive trend… a big difference. While the market carries a long-term negative (bearish) outlook, there will be times where the short and intermediate term is positive.

For example, in 2008, we had similar long term bearish market tones, but yet we had a sustained three month rally starting in late spring that made (guys like me) scratch our heads. I would also add the following:

Here is a snapshot of what is happening right now:

Be sure to get in touch with us if you questions regarding the overall game plan.

FOCPX: Fidelity OTC Fund Analysis October 25, 2011

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 14:01:45 +0000

Is the Fidelity OTC Fund (symbol FOCPX) available in your retirement plan at work? FOCPX may be available in your deferred compensation plan or your 401k plan. In the many retirement plans I have reviewed, the Fidelity OTC Fund is one of the more popular funds — meaning, it is often offered as one of the choices for large cap growth investing in a 401(k) plan.

And in some deferred comp accounts and 401(k) plans, the Fidelity OTC fund (FOCPX) is sometimes the most recognizable name in your plan. With that in mind, I have prepared an analysis of the point and figure chart for this fund.

Please note this is an ANALYSIS, not a recommendation to buy or sell this fund. In fact, none of the securities analyzed represent past specific recommendations of Mullooly Asset Management.

All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions, or withdrawals may materially alter the performance of your portfolio. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for an investor’s portfolio. Feel free to pick up the phone and call us (or email) to get your questions answered about the Fidelity OTC fund, or your 401k retirement account at work, any investment your are considering. We can be reached at 732-223-9000.

Doctor Copper, the Economist

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 13:56:42 +0000

Copper has often been regarded as a great economic indicator, since copper has so many uses. When the economy typically begins to pick up, copper is in DEMAND. When we have slack (or slow) times in the economy, demand for copper drops.

So what is copper, as an economic indicator, saying right now? Keep in mind, it is not a perfect indicator, and at times it has been wrong (or slow). While we are *NOT* recommending the purchase or sale of copper, it sure has an uncanny knack of telling us what is happening right now.

And since point and figure charts tell us precisely “what is happening right now,” this video about copper and the exchange traded fund from First Trust, the Global Copper Index (symbol CU) have to say.

Our point and figure charts are provided by Dorsey Wright & Associates. I encourage you to visit their website and check out their free two week trial subscription! You should also please note the postings and videos on this site are my own, and do not necessarily represent Dorsey, Wright & Associates positions, strategies or opinions.

Feel free to contact us through email or by phone at 732-223-9000 should you have any questions, or have a mutual fund, exchange traded fund or stock you would like us to analyze. We may even feature it in an upcoming video!

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Fund (MGEMX)

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 11:47:09 +0000

Is the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index Fund (symbol MGEMX) available in your retirement plan at work? MGEMX may be available in your deferred compensation plan or your 401k plan. In the many retirement plans I have reviewed, this Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Fund is one of the more popular funds — meaning, it is often offered as one of the choices for international investing in a 401(k) plan.

And in some deferred comp accounts and 401(k) plans, the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets fund (MGEMX) is sometimes the only option available if you would like to invest internationally. With that in mind, I have prepared an analysis of the point and figure chart for this fund. Please note this is an ANALYSIS, not a recommendation to buy or sell this fund.

If you have a mutual fund in YOUR deferred compensation account, 403(b) annuity or in your 401(k) plan at work that you would like us to analyze, please contact us at 732-223-9000 and we would be happy to arrange for that analysis at no obligation.

Please take a few moments to review our analysis of the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets fund (MGEMX):

Dow Jones as of October 4, 2011

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 13:04:44 +0000

Last week, we reviewed the action on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The date of that chart was September 27, 2011. In light of yesterday’s activity in the market, I have prepared a short, two minute video to review what is happening — just one week later. The great thing about point and figure charts is they allow us a clear view of what is happening RIGHT NOW.

We do not have to be bothered with predictions of where the market is heading.

If you are relying on a blog post for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.

If you do not have an investment adviser, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000, or through our website. Under no circumstances should the content discussed here to be considered specific investment advice. The postings and videos on this site are my own and do not necessarily represent Dorsey, Wright & Associates positions, strategies or opinions.

Our point and figure charts are provided by Dorsey Wright & Associates. I encourage you to visit their website and check out their free two week trial subscription!

Please contact us at 732-223-9000 if you have questions.

NFLX Netflix as of September 29, 2011

Thomas Mullooly — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 14:38:08 +0000

Sell Signals: Not to be ignored

Netflix (symbol NFLX) is a great example (at the present time) of what happens if investors ignore sell signals. One of the great features of point and figure charts is that they often have clear actionable points along the way. Netflix (NFLX) gave several sell signals throughout July, August and September 2011 before breaking the support line and completely falling out of bed. Take a look at this short video for a walk-through on sell signals and what can happen if you ignore them.

After seeing the Netflix (NFLX) chart generate a steady string of buy signals all the way up — there was not a single sell signal early in the year — we saw multiple sell signals in a row (not one buy signal) once the stock began to fall in July. We cannot predict what the future holds for Netflix. But do not ignore multiple sell signals.

The postings and videos on this site are my own and do not necessarily represent Dorsey, Wright & Associates positions, strategies or opinions.

Our point and figure charts are provided by Dorsey Wright & Associates. I encourage you to visit their website and check out their free two week trial subscription!

Dow Jones September 27, 2011

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 12:48:27 +0000

This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (September 26, 2011 close). This is a 100-point box chart (each box along the side represents 100 points on the Dow Jones).
All charts are courtesy of Dorsey Wright & Associates
Dorsey Wright offers a free two week trial subscription, I encourage you to check them out.

We have been range-bound between 11500 on the high side and 10700-10800 on the low end since early August.
The overhead resistance line now sits at 11400. So if the market continues its’ range-bound ways, we are going to have a big test if we can get up near that 11400-11500 point. A break THROUGH those levels would help put the market in a positive trend.

Of course, if the resistance line holds, we could be looking at more downside. It is still risky out there.
All charts are courtesy of Dorsey Wright & Associates
Dorsey Wright offers a free two week trial subscription, I encourage you to check them out.

Emerging Market Debt and Large Cap Stocks?

Thomas Mullooly — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 11:58:09 +0000

Weekly Commentary for July 19, 2011

A few weeks back I wrote “there is a possibility this is how the market could move (sideways) for awhile.”
It’s possible we could see five, six or seven weeks of sideways or straight up, followed by five, six or seven weeks of sideways to down.

So yesterday, I’m driving to a meeting and I hear this financial planner being interviewed on Bloomberg radio.

When I heard what he said, I almost drove off the road.

He was saying all of his clients needed to be heavily invested in emerging market debt and large cap stocks.

Wow.

He spoke about how, fundamentally, these emerging markets were a “compelling value” at these levels. And the same was true, he said, about large cap stocks.

Wow again.

Putting the charts aside, I don’t know if I really want to own the debt of ANY country at this time, including emerging markets.
But my question to this planner would be, is a “compelling value” enough to make people want to invest in something like that?

What will make them go up? I mean, suppose prices of these things fall from here, does that make these investments a “better” value?

You know, it’s funny.
These point and figure charts I use to manage your investments can only move up when the price moves up.
There is no other way.

And the price moves up when more folks are buying. Period. There is no talk about “compelling values.”

Intermediate indicators have flipped to positive (offense).
This means we begin to push some chips back on the table.
Even though it appears counter-intuitive, the discipline tells us this is what we ought to be doing at this stage of the game.

If you are relying on a blog post for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions. If you do not have an investment adviser, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000, or through our website. Under no circumstances should the content discussed on this post be considered specific investment advice.

Big Picture Looks Positive

Thomas Mullooly — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 20:23:56 +0000

Weekly Commentary for March 15, 2011

Before today (March 15), the market is up roughly 4% for the year (since January 1st).

Since the market peak (short term) on February 17th, the market is down 4%. But it *feels* much worse than it actually is.

Now, all we read in the papers is “sensational” news. We have had some CRAZY world events. Short term, this market WILL be sloppy …driven by news. But the bigger picture still looks very positive.

If you are relying on a blog post for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.

If you do not have an investment adviser, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000, or through our website.

Under no circumstances should the content discussed on this post be considered specific investment advice.

***** ***** *****

For example, in late 2007, “money market” charts began to strengthen compared to stocks. Which spelled trouble for 2008. We are no where near those kinds of readings. Again, nowhere near anything like that.

The main thing I remind clients is everyone has a different comfort level.

The more important question:
At what level will YOU be OK?
Will that be 100% out of the market?
Will it be 50% out?

Mullooly Asset Management Podcast for April 20, 2011

Thomas Mullooly — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 18:31:12 +0000

We encourage our readers and listeners to our podcast to consult with their investment adviser before making a decision to buy or sell any investment.

And if you are relying on a podcast for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.

If you do not have an investment adviser in the New Jersey or New York area, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000 or through our website.

Under no circumstances should any of the content discussed on this podcast be considered investment advice.

This week, John Dorfman talks about “inside” information. Why would insiders buy their own stock? Is it really an indication that the stock will move higher?

Hang on. What do really wealthy people hate doing?
They hate paying taxes.

Of course it’s unlikely a guy like Michael Dell is going to sink ten million into something that will generate a lot of taxable income – like buying/selling stock.

Would he put it into CDs? Have you seen what the rates are?
Not to mention that’s taxable, so that’s out.

And there’s no chance that some insurance guy is going to sell him one of those principal protected annuities.

What about tax-free bonds? Maybe, but if interest rates move up, he’s sunk.

Real estate? No chance.

Insider buying is not the best or most accurate predictor. And as our listeners know, we hate predicting.
Here at Mullooly Asset Management, we’d rather stick with Point and Figure.
PnF tells us precisely what’s happening now – not what might work, could work, or should work in the future.

We’re won’t predict. Want to know what’s working right now?
Give us a call at the office.

Thank you for listening. We welcome your comments and questions.

Mullooly Asset Management Podcast for April 14, 2011

Thomas Mullooly — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 18:13:28 +0000

We encourage our readers and listeners to our podcast to consult with their investment adviser before making a decision to buy or sell any investment.

And if you are relying on a podcast for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.

If you do not have an investment adviser in the New Jersey or New York area, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000 or through our website.

Under no circumstances should any of the content discussed on this podcast be considered investment advice.

In this week’s John Dorfman column, he makes an analogy between the 30-30 club in baseball and his own 30-30 club for businesses. To make his cut, the stock has to have a 30% return on stockholders equity in the last year and 30% average annual earings growth over the past five years.

Here’s the point: 30-30 in baseball isn’t such a big deal anymore. The same goes for businesses.

Who cares if stockholders’ equity grew be 30% in the last year?
We want to know what’s happening this year.

Even though some of the names are in positive trends, I don’t like relying on fundamental analysis. If you buy a stock because some analyst expects (PREDICTS) an average annual growth, you’re sunk if those earnings don’t perform as expected.

As an investment adviser, it’s not prudent for me to make “blanket recommendations” – if you have any questions, call us at the office and we’ll talk about the names on the list.

Here’s the real kicker: at the end of the article, Dorfman discloses that he only owns one of the names on his Elite list.
John, if you really feel a particular stock is “elite”, do your clients a favor: BUY IT.

Thank you for listening. We welcome your comments and questions.

Mullooly Asset Management Podcast for April 7, 2011

Thomas Mullooly — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 20:20:50 +0000

We encourage our readers and listeners to our podcast to consult with their investment adviser before making a decision to buy or sell any investment.

And if you are relying on a podcast for specific investment advice, you are making a huge mistake. Please speak with an investment adviser before making ANY investment decisions.

If you do not have an investment adviser in the New Jersey or New York area, we encourage you to contact Mullooly Asset Management at 732-223-9000 or through our website.

Under no circumstances should any of the content discussed on this podcast be considered investment advice.

In this week’s podcast, we talk about John Dorfman’s latest article in which he discusses four “pummeled” stocks for investors to buy. Dorfman takes a value approach in stock buying – he ‘s very patient and can buy stocks and wait a long time for things to work out.

Here at Mullooly Asset Mangement, we prefer a different approach: we like to be able to open our monthly statement and see the value increase every month.

In his latest article, Dorfman put together a “Casualty List” of the worst stock performances of the quarter. This isn’t really the best approach: there’s not much merit in buying failing stocks. Instead, we believe in buying stocks that are in positive trend.

They’re going up for a reason – because people are buying them.

Thank you for listening. We welcome your comments and questions.

Companies mentioned in this podcast:
Best Buy (BBY)
Expedia (EXPE)
Getty Realty (GTY)
ValueClick (VCLK)
Couer d’Alene Mines (CDE)
Goodrich Petroleum Group (GDP)
Nutrisystem (NTRI)
Piper Jaffray (PJC)