All Indicators Now Negative

All of the short term AND long-term indicators I follow have now turned negative. 

All of 'em.  Including the S&P 500.
 

What's that mean?  Well, the S&P 500 Index is simply the 500 largest stocks in the US.
 

And, basically, 70% of all money in mutual funds sits in the same 500 stocks. 
 

That's a lot of money. 
 

Your money. 
Your kid's money.
Your retirement money.
 

Now, when you get a picture (or chart?) of what direction these 500 stocks are heading, you get a pretty good idea of what's unfolding right now in the market. 
 

It's like watching a school of fish changing direction.
 

It's not gradual. 
And it doesn't need a reason to happen, either.
It just…goes…
 

Two months is about average length of time the defense carries the ball.  Some defensive times have been pain-free.  And some — like 2001 and 2002 — saw drops of 20% — in a few weeks.
 

Ouch. 
 

It's a little like stubbing your toe in the dark, on the corner of the bed.
 

It's dark.  It's unexpected.  And it hurts.
 

Since 2002, the market hasn't seen a 10% correction. 
 

We might be overdue. I hope I'm wrong.  I could be. 
Good thing I am not in the "predicting business" like the knuckleheads on TV.
 

We have tools at our disposal that can make money in down markets.

I've been buying "short" and "ultra-short" ETF's the past few days.  These are funds that go UP when the market, index or sector it follows goes DOWN. 
 
In the case of "ultra-short" ETF's, that is often 150% or 200% of the move.  Meaning, if a sector drops 8%, the "ultra-short" can go up about 15-16%.

Not for the faint of heart. Definitely NOT for the faint of heart.
 

I’ve been keeping an eye on the following:

MZZ = Ultra Short Mid Cap 400

QID = Ultra Short QQQ

REW = Ultra Short Technology

SDD = Ultra Short Small Cap 600

SMN = Ultra Short Basic Materials

SRS = Ultra Short Real Estate

TWM = Ultra Short Russell 2000
 

Remember, it’s great when you are right.  But in this case, if the index you are betting against goes UP 5%, you can lose 10%.  Fast.  So, please be warned, these are tools that CAN work against you.  Badly.
 

TomThomas Mullooly
Mullooly Asset Management LLC
Our Only Business Is Fee-Only Investment Advice
www.mullooly.net
support@mullooly.net

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